By Emerson Johnston, Cyber Threat Report Analyst
The Cyber Threat Alliance (CTA) is pleased to announce the release of its new Joint Analytic Report (JAR): Approaching Quantum Dawn: Closing the Cybersecurity Readiness Gap Before It’s Too Late. This report reflects the collaborative analysis of experts from thirteen CTA member organizations and offers a timely, grounded view of the cybersecurity challenges posed by advances in quantum computing.
The JAR focuses on one critical insight: quantum disruption is already underway, not through dramatic decryption events, but strategic behaviors like Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL). In these scenarios, adversaries steal encrypted data today to decrypt it when quantum capabilities mature. This shift reframes the problem from a speculative future concern to a present-day imperative.
Despite persistent claims that quantum computing is decades away from real-world impact, the report finds that such views underestimate adversary intent and technological progress. Evidence of accelerating readiness is mounting from the rollout of the IBM Condor chip to government mandates for cryptographic transition. Yet organizational preparation remains inconsistent and, in many cases, absent.
The report is structured in three major parts. The first examines the evolving quantum threat landscape, distinguishing between theoretical speculation and operational signals. It addresses misconceptions about “Q-Day” and provides a framework for understanding when quantum capabilities become cryptographically relevant. This includes a deep dive into quantum volume, coherence thresholds, and fault-tolerance requirements—factors that, taken together, offer a more realistic picture of progress than qubit count alone.
The second section focuses on what organizations must do now. Rather than waiting for finalized algorithms or vendor-ready solutions, the JAR urges cybersecurity leaders to begin building cryptographic agility—the ability to rapidly identify, upgrade, and transition cryptographic assets. This agility is foundational for quantum readiness and long-term resilience against any class of cryptanalytic breakthrough. The report introduces the CTA Cryptographic Agility Maturity Scorecard, a practical, multidimensional model for assessing cryptographic posture across inventory, modularity, testing, governance, and vendor management to assist with this.
Importantly, the report makes clear that agility alone is not enough. Organizations must also take measurable steps toward post-quantum implementation. Hybrid deployments, pilot migrations, and certificate and key management infrastructure updates are no longer optional. Cybersecurity providers are encouraged to integrate these capabilities into their offerings and to treat post-quantum readiness as a core security requirement, not an experimental add-on.
The final section explores the opportunity landscape. Quantum technologies are not solely threats—they offer real potential for defense. Innovations such as quantum random number generation (QRNG) and quantum-enhanced threat detection represent credible avenues for improved cybersecurity. Similarly, organizations that lead on post-quantum implementation can signal regulatory alignment, technical maturity, and market differentiation, especially in sectors where data longevity is critical.
At its core, Approaching Quantum Dawn is a call to action grounded in realism. The report does not suggest panic. It suggests discipline. It argues that quantum threats will emerge unevenly, often invisibly, and that waiting for clarity is itself a strategic risk. Organizations that take action now—by investing in agility, conducting risk assessments, and beginning hybrid deployments—will be far better positioned to adapt as the landscape evolves.
Click here access the full report.